Roy Moore’s Defeat a Major Setback for Trump on Multiple Fronts
In a stunning upset that continues to reverberate around political circles, Doug Jones defeated Roy Moore in yesterday’s Alabama Senate run-off election. What should have been an easy Republican win turned into a tense battle ending in loss. When analyzed in a wider context, the result portends troubling news for President Donald Trump, and conservatives by extension. We explain.
If there are any silver linings in yesterday’s results, they are fleeting. Although Roy Moore led most of the way, it became increasingly obvious that his lead wouldn’t hold as the night rolled on. Moore’s advantage peaked at about 10% roughly 90 minutes into the vote count, then steadily eroded thereafter.
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The erosion really picked up steam once the slower-reporting urban bloc started filtering in. Urban vote counts generally take longer to report because of the sheer volume of votes cast in relation to rural centers. With big population clusters such as Montgomery and Jefferson counties reporting late and expected to favor Jones, we sensed trouble. Roy Moore simply hadn’t built in enough cushion to buffer against the inevitable onslaught.
Alabama conservatives’ worst fears were realized when, by the third hour, the mainstream media was universally calling the election for Jones. The big urban Jones-voting blocs simply took command. The final results have Jones winning the popular vote by 1.5% or approximately 21,000 votes. (Source: “Alabama earthquake: Democrat Jones wins,” Politico, December 12, 2017.)
So what does this result mean in the larger context? I would posit it means nothing good for President Trump on multiple fronts. More than just a simple Senate race in a backwater state, this race had clear ideological undertones. Not just for state conservatives, but for America as a whole. The race was a microcosm of a deeper battle that lies ahead.
Here are three important ways how Doug Jones’s improbable win weakens Donald Trump and his MAGA agenda.
Win Will Embolden Character Assassination Tactics Against Trump
When it comes to weaponizing attacks for personal gain, nobody does it better than the Democrats. They have it down to a science. The recent case of Roy Moore is a perfect example.
Without any hard corroborating evidence, admission, or even supporting anecdotes from a career spanning 40 years of public service, the Democrat/establishment GOP successfully ambushed Moore’s run for U.S. Senate. The hatchet job was done strictly through trial-by-media, even though key pieces of accuser evidence were debunked. Amazingly, opponents were about to sabotage Moore’s campaign in one of the reddest states in the Union. Think about that for a moment.
The net effect is that the Democrat/establishment GOP nexus will be emboldened by such action. The message from last night’s results in clear: Running a smear campaign works. Not only did the well-coordinated scandal energize the black vote (some counties reported a noticeably bigger turnout than the 2016 presidential elections), it suppressed the Republican vote. Fence-sitting Republican voters, Luther Strange primary voters, and independents mostly failed to show up. Had Alabama Republicans presented a scandal-less candidate, the results would have been different.
Justin Sullivan/Staff/Getty Images
Now that Moore has been defeated, expect renewed and bolder attacks on President Trump. Emboldened presidential opponents will attempt to finish off what they almost accomplished on election night 2016. That is, inundate the news cycle with a renewed focus on Trump’s sexual misconduct accusers, continue the perfectly-choreographed calls for his resignation, and keep dripping accusations into the news cycle, regardless of their validity. Wash, rinse, repeat.
The chorus has already begun with Sen. Kirsten Gillibrand’s public calls. Expect the cacophony to gradually ramp up, along with support from anti-Trump media. Expect the “Never Trump” media to provide additional support in an attempt to portray resignation demands as a bi-partisan effort.
The stakes have now been raised tenfold. Morale is a powerful aphrodisiac.
Steve Bannon Has Been Weakened
The other co-loser of last night is Breitbart Executive Chair Steve Bannon. It was Bannon who originally decided to thumb his nose at the establishment by backing Roy Moore in the Alabama primary against establishment-favorite Luther Strange. Even after the allegations surfaced, Bannon stuck by his candidate. A poor decision, as it turns out.
This morning, the cacophony of vitriol and ridicule against Bannon is deafening. Many in the Republican wing are questioning his decision to defend Moore, despite the unproven allegations against him. Although many come from the more RINO side of the aisle, the ridicule will do little to bring liberal and conservative Republicans together heading into 2018. While there’s still time, a non-unified front is the last thing the GOP needs as Congressional elections edge closer.
Here’s a sample:
Suck it, Bannon
— Meghan McCain (@MeghanMcCain) December 13, 2017
Before we get the results, I'd just like to thank Steve Bannon for showing us how to lose the reddest state in the union and Governor Ivey for the opportunity to make this national embarrassment a reality
— Josh Holmes (@HolmesJosh) December 13, 2017
Steve Bannon's campaign to depose Mitch McConnell takes a big step forward, by throwing away a seat in a ruby red state
— Rich Lowry (@RichLowry) December 13, 2017
Take a moment and consider the utter incompetence of having nothing really to do with Moore's primary victory, but rushing to claim responsibility for it, and thus now being seen as responsible for this disaster. I give you Steve Bannon.
— Jamie Weinstein (@Jamie_Weinstein) December 13, 2017
The Bannon bloodletting is coming in. This from a longtime GOP political strategist. pic.twitter.com/WHtXo1TqZ7
— David Martosko (@dmartosko) December 13, 2017
President Trump backtracked after campaigning and robocalling on behalf of Roy Moore.
The reason I originally endorsed Luther Strange (and his numbers went up mightily), is that I said Roy Moore will not be able to win the General Election. I was right! Roy worked hard but the deck was stacked against him!
— Donald J. Trump (@realDonaldTrump) December 13, 2017
As Breitbart is by far the largest pro-Trump outlet around, any weakening of it weakens Trump’s influence by default. To put its audience in perspective, Breitbart had 2.2-billion page views by November 20, 2017, and is America’s fourth-biggest news site behind CNN.com, NYTimes.com, and WashingtonPost.com. (Source: “Boom: Breitbart.com Breaks Web Traffic Record Set in 2016 — by Mid-November!,” Breitbart, November 26, 2017.)
That’s some reach. Unfortunately for Roy Moore, Breitbart’s very influential bullhorn wasn’t quite loud enough.
Recall that it was The Washington Post that originally broke the news of Moore’s sexual misconduct scandal. It never let go of the story after that. Breitbart was forced into a defensive posture by countering the accusations instead of extolling its candidate. It’s a position no defacto campaign mouthpiece wants to be in. In the end, however, it wasn’t enough to convince the electorate. WaPo won both the battle and the war.
Considering WaPo is among the most fervent anti-Trump publications around, this bodes poorly for Trump on the public relations and ideological battlefronts.
Republican Senate Majority Shrank to 51-49
With Moore losing yesterday’s election, Trump’s MAGA agenda got that much harder. Once Doug Jones is sworn in around Christmas, Republicans will only hold a slim 51-49 in the Senate. Put another way, Republicans can only afford one defection from party ranks or any attempted legislation could die in Congress. Considering all the “Never Trumpers” within the Republican party, it’s not hard to envision any Trump-led initiative getting stonewalled in the Senate.
This comes at a critical time where Trump needs to notch some legislative wins under his belt. Bereft of any major wins in Congress, Trump needs to provide tangible results even if the legislative grind isn’t his fault. As the party approaches the final consideration of its sweeping tax bill, Jones’s victory casts doubt on the passage of Trump’s pet initiative and core campaign promise. If the tax bill dies in the Senate, Trump will be denied a major victory, which could ensure the U.S. economy keeps outperforming in 2018.
A robust economy is a key pillar of Trump’s support. Opponents may not like his governing style, but there’s little argument that Trump’s pro-business policies are helping the economy hum. Desist that, and Trump’s support and approval ratings could decline. A now paper-thin majority in the Senate raises the odds of this happening.
