NRSC Poll Shows Roy Moore Drops 28 Points in a Month
A new poll conducted by the National Republican Senatorial Committee (NRSC) is out, and it shows rather shocking results. The NRSC poll shows Alabama U.S. Senate Democratic candidate Doug Jones up a full 12 points on Roy Moore, after being down 16 points last month. Despite the multiple allegations of Moore’s sexual misconduct with minors, can this poll be believed? We examine.
Who Exactly Is the National Republican Senatorial Committee?
The NRSC is a national organization entirely devoted to strengthening the Republican Senate Majority and electing Republicans to the U.S. Senate. It promotes Republican Senate causes by highlighting partisan achievements in the media.
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The NRSC’s other mandate involves fundraising to help elect Republican incumbents and challengers. Beyond campaign financing, NRSC support extends to critical operational activities such as media messaging, opposition research, and strategy planning. In many ways, the NRSC acts as the defacto Public Relations wing of Senatorial Republicans.
So at first blush, the NRSC internal poll showing Doug Jones ahead 12 points seems problematic. After all, their stated mandate is to get their own party candidates elected. But is Roy Moore one of their own? The evidence begs to differ.
For instance, NRSC Chairman Cory Gardner (R-CO) said Roy Moore should end his U.S. Senate run or be disqualified from office by the chamber if he manages to win the December 12 race. Said Gardner, “If he refuses to withdraw and wins, the Senate should vote to expel him, because he does not meet the ethical and moral requirements of the United States Senate.” (Source: “Cory Gardner: If Roy Moore wins election, Senate should expel him,” The Denver Post, November 13, 2017.)
Not to be outdone, NRSC Vice Chairman Tom Tillis (R-NC) parroted the same party line, saying “I have serious concerns about his prior conduct and fitness for office. He should immediately withdraw from the race.” (Source: “Tillis, Burr call on Moore to ‘withdraw’ from Alabama Senate race,” The News & Observer, November 13, 2017.)
In fact, dozens of Republican senators and House members from the highest echelons of the party have completely thrown Roy Moore under the bus. This includes a Who’s Who of party leadership, like Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell and House Speaker Paul Ryan. They’ve all sided with the accusers, despite the circumstantial nature of 40-year-old evidence.
What is clear is that Roy Moore certainly isn’t the choice candidate of the NRSC, and worse, is being actively subverted by his own party’s leadership.
In our minds, this brings the credibility of the NRSC poll results into question.
We’ve Seen This Movie Before
Recent history is rife with examples of dubious polling results created to shape public opinion.
Only last year, various polls showed Hillary Clinton leading Donald Trump by double-digits late in the election cycle. One poll, conducted by Associated Press-GfK, with a margin of error of +/- 2.75 percentage points at the 95% confidence level, showed Clinton up 14% nationally just 12 days before the election. Some confidence. (Source: “THE AP-GfK POLL,” The Associated Press, October 2016.)
Polling methodology became a major campaign talking point. Left-leaning pollsters were routinely caught oversampling Democrats-leaning voters by seven to 13%, despite the fact that Republican and Democrat voters are roughly the same size. The reason for such bias is unproven, but it’s hard to imagine it isn’t ideologically driven. Now, we have certifiable evidence of this fact.
A recent report by Bombthrowers.com has shed light on just how biased establishment media polling is. They believe that top political polls got the 2016 presidential elections wrong because of flawed methodology in their rating systems.
More recently, the report indicates mainstream polls have oversampled Democrats over Republicans by an average of 29% to skew Trump’s approvals ratings negative. If the polling were honest, Trump’s approval rating would be 8 points higher, to 46% from the 38% widely reported. (Source: “‘Fraud’: Mainstream polls use 29% more Democrats than Republicans,” Washington Examiner, September 22, 2017.)
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Given the obvious bias behind much of the establishment polling, can voters trust the impartiality of the NRSC poll? Especially with the NRSC Chair, Vice Chair, and dozens of GOP figureheads clamoring for Roy Moore’s withdrawal.
Paint us skeptical.
What “Impartial” Polls Are Saying
According to a recent FOX10 News/Strategy Research poll, Moore leads Doug Jones by 49% to 43% among a poll of 3,000 likely voters in Alabama. The poll was taken on November 13, days after a report by The Washington Post accused Moore of engaging in inappropriate conduct with four teenage girls. (Source: “AL Sen Poll: Moore Leads Jones 49% to 43%,” Breitbart, November 14, 2017.)
Of note, this poll may not include the accusations brought forth by Gloria Allred-defended Beverly Young Nelson. It’s quite possible that public opinion has slipped further after dissemination of those allegations.
Still, it’s hard to imagine most of the damage hasn’t already been done. This still leaves a gaping hole between the FOX10 News results and the more recent NRSC poll released yesterday.
Furthermore, eye-opening anecdotal evidence appears to confirm that many Alabama voters are sticking with Roy Moore.
An Alabama ABC-affiliate recently sent a beat reporter to Columbiana, Alabama, to gauge public reaction to the fresh Roy Moore accusations. Her finding? None of the respondents believed The Washington Post‘s report of the scandal.
According to the reporter, Lauren Walsh, “Out of all the voters we spoke with Friday in Columbiana, we didn’t find one voter who believed the Washington Post report about Moore.” (Source: “Alabama ABC Affiliate Can’t Find One Voter Who Believes WaPo Report About Roy Moore in Man-on-the-Street Segment,” Breitbart, November 10, 2017.)
Lest you believe Lauren Walsh was asking some rural, backwater Alabamans who always vote Republican, think again. Columbiana is a suburb of Birmingham, located just seven miles from Alabama’s largest city. It’s also a relatively affluent part of the metropolis. This wouldn’t be the type of area where “low information” voters reside.
Our Verdict
In light of the clear weaponization of polling results and the NRSC’s stated objective to oust Roy Moore, we would view the NRSC poll with skeptical eyes. It doesn’t mesh with reality from other sources, nor anecdotal evidence coming from voters themselves.
Whether Moore’s results will deteriorate further over time remains to be seen. Most of the accusations are 40 years old and the timing is very politically dubious.
Whether the accusations are true or false is almost beside the point. There’s no way of knowing one way or the other. But the one thing we do know with absolute certainty is that the allegations are being administered and timed to create maximum damage to Moore’s run for U.S. Senate. That’s a tough pill to swallow for most voters.
In our opinion, the truth likely lies somewhere in the middle. The race is likely exceedingly close, perhaps with a bias of Moore being slightly behind. That isn’t a terrible place to be considering the enormous political hatchet job currently unfolding.
The person who holds all the cards now is President Donald Trump. Moore might be able to survive the abandonment of the GOP establishment, but he won’t survive if Donald Trump disavows him. So far, he hasn’t.
It was expected that Trump would make a statement about Moore upon his return from a 12-day trip to Asia. But Trump has kept silent so far. That would be considered a win for Moore, as it implies that Trump will let Alabamans decide Moore’s fate.
That’s all he can ask for at this point.
