Things Not Looking Good for Doug Jones as Alabama Voters Refuse to Abandon Roy Moore
If the establishment thought Alabama voters would abandon Roy Moore en masse, they were sorely mistaken. The Republican (GOP) U.S. Senate hopeful is undergoing a massive rebound in the polls, and—in fact—has regained his once-commanding position.
This is bad news for Moore opponents, who have thrown everything and the kitchen sink at him. “Everything” includes multiple sexual misconduct allegations, the complete top-down abandonment of GOP establishment support, and Gloria Allred’s personal involvement. Yet, the evidence suggests that Alabama voters are not vindictive.
A comprehensive new poll conducted by WT&S Consulting involving 11,641 likely voters, between November 18 and November 20, showed Moore ahead 5.9% on Jones (46.4% vs. 40.5%). (Source: “Exclusive — Alabama Poll: Judge Roy Moore Leads Radical Democrat Doug Jones by Six Points,” Breitbart, November 21, 2017.)
The survey included 60.9 percent Republicans and 39.1 percent Democrats, the approximate voter margin witnessed in the 2016 presidential election. Because of the large sample size, the margin of error is only 1.2 percent, which is two-and-a-half times lower than the margin of error in frequently-cited establishment polls. (Source: Ibid.)
Obviously, this is exceedingly positive news for Roy Moore. It indicates that his support has barely budged from the point the allegations started to manifest. Despite the seriousness of the accusations and non-stop mainstream media coverage, the needle has barely moved in Doug Jones direction.
These poll numbers also signify an amazing U-turn from last week’s NRSC poll showing Democrat Doug Jones up 12 points on Roy Moore. Although the NRSC poll was likely negatively skewed due to biased backing and small sample size (only 500 registered Alabama voters were polled), the WT&S data should breathe confidence into the Moore campaign.
The new poll result works to instill two important truisms: 1) damage control messaging is has effectively counteracting the allegations and 2) most Alabama voters never really bought into the hit piece narrative.
With regards to the latter point, Alabama voters likely made the correct gut decision.
For example, the Beverley Young Nelson yearbook accusation is crumbling fast. Why? Because Nelson’s liberal attorney, Gloria Allred, has repeatedly balked at submitting the yearbook to third-party assessors for verification. If the yearbook signature is really 40 years old, modern forensics could verify authenticity quickly.
Such key inaction continues to foster the belief that the smears against Roy Moore were nothing less than character assassination meant to torpedo his U.S. Senate bid. The timing, circumstantial nature of the evidence, and key inconsistencies appear to point in that direction.
More importantly, it makes me wonder if Roy Moore isn’t now bulletproof against any further attacks antagonists fire his way.
What the PredictIt Market is Saying
According to the political wagering site PredictIt, “shares” of Moore have risen from a low of $0.32 on November 15 to a current value of $0.69. That’s more than a 100% increase. (Source: “Judge Roy Moore Jumps to 33 POINT LEAD in PredictIt Market Following Trump Nod! 69-36,” Gateway Pundit, November 21, 2017.)
Put another way, about a week ago, it only required Moore “shareholders” to wager $0.32 for a chance to win $1.00 should Moore win the U.S. Senate race on December 12. Today, it requires double that amount, $0.69, for a chance to earn $1.00 from a Moore win next month, net of platform fees. Paying customers clearly see Moore as the favorite now, and are backing this horse.
The PredictIt market is a fairly important predictive indicator. Why? Because logic dictates that people who wager money generally think hard about the issues at hand. It doesn’t mean the public is always right, but having skin in the game matters. It makes the collective opinion less likely to be fomented by flimsily constructed half-guesses or ill-conceived analysis. It’s hard to argue against that point.
If the soaring levels for Moore are any indication, the establishment favorite is in big trouble.
My Verdict
It’s becoming increasingly clear that Alabama voters refuse to abandon Roy Moore. Antagonists have thrown everything at him, but, like Teflon coating, nothing is sticking to him.
Perhaps the biggest reason for this is that voters have seen this playbook before. It was used almost verbatim against Trump in the 2016 presidential election, yet 60-plus percent of Alabamans voted for Trump anyway. Moore, in combination with allies like Steve Bannon (Brietbart), have done a fabulous job in damage control, credibly deconstructing the accuser’s arguments piece by piece.
Furthermore, after a near-pristine record of public service stretching back decades, voters simply aren’t buying the establishment narrative. Voters know a good hit piece when they see one. It will take much more than 40-year old unverifiable allegations for Alabama voters to abandon Roy Moore.
Thus, it appears that the electorate has decided: “not guilty” in the court of public opinion.