Despite the Anti-China Campaign Rhetoric, Trump May Be a Better ‘Partner’ for Beijing
China’s President Xi Jinping did not waste any time. Concerned by the prospect of Donald Trump’s increased tariffs on Chinese goods, Xi called the President-elect on Monday. He stressed that cooperation was the only way to conduct relations between China and the U.S. (Source: “Xi tells Trump Sino-US cooperation is the only choice,” Asia Times, November 14, 2016.)
Other than Mexico, China was the country that Trump castigated the most. Famously, he warned Beijing that he would slap a 45% tariff on Chinese imports. He also accused China of being a “currency manipulator,” keeping the yuan artificially low.
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But China wants stability as it pursues one of its deepest reforms to revive its economy in recent memory.
Trump was cordial, President Xi told Chinese media. But analysts have many doubts, given the scope of Trump’s campaign rhetoric. The general concern is that if Trump acts on his threats, he could spark a trade war between the U.S. and China, the world’s two largest economic powers. One of Trump’s campaign advisors, Peter Navarro, a professor of economics and public policy at the Paul Merage School of Business, is known to put American industrial decline on Chinese shoulders alone.
But Beijing might see this as a bit of a bluff. It does not appear afraid of Donald Trump. Xi Jinping has adopted a conciliatory tone over Trump’s election. China seems confident that, despite the fiery rhetoric, Trump understands as well as anyone that tariffs would increase the prices of products imported from China. This would hurt the very people who voted for Trump. They would end up paying much more for a variety of goods.
Then there is the fact that Trump needs Chinese cooperation. Politics aside, Trump is trying to do business in China, building a hotel complex. (Source: “As Trump bashed China, he ‘sought hotel deal with its govt’,” Daily Mail, October 17, 2016.)
Trump might also be the better choice from the perspective of China’s internal affairs. Hillary Clinton would have pursued a more interventionist policy vis-à-vis Beijing, promoting democracy and challenging its rising military power status in the Pacific region. The Chinese believe Trump would focus more on economic and financial matters, which can always be negotiated. Trump is also more isolationist than any of his predecessors. This would leave China free to pursue interests in Africa and South America.
