Write-In Vote Advocacy May Have Been the Difference Between Victory And Defeat
With the still-stinging verdict ringing in conservatives’ ears nationwide, the question has turned to “How?” How was it possible a Republican candidate lost in one of the reddest states in the Union? How did Roy Moore lose to not just a Democrat, but one with “radical” views on late-term abortion and illegal immigration? How was this result even possible in a state that voted for Donald Trump 63%-35% in the 2016 general election?
While the answer is a perfect storm of issues starting with Moore’s sexual misconduct allegations, the GOP’s top-down subversion ranks up there. In particular, top GOP leaders’ public insinuations that Republican voters should support a write-in candidate.
For instance, Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell floated Attorney General Jeff Sessions as a replacement for Roy Moore at The Wall Street Journal CEO Council’s annual meeting in mid-November. The proposal would have seen Sessions, the current U.S. attorney general, become a write-in candidate to take back his old Senate seat. McConnell cited Senator Lisa Murkowski, (R-AK) as a successful example of such a scheme. (Source: “McConnell proposes Sessions as a write-in to replace Moore,” CNN, November 15, 2017.)
Perhaps even more damaging, Alabama’s other Republican senator, Richard Selby, sought the same thing. Selby publicly said he will not be voting for Moore and urged voters to write in another Republican. (Source: “Roy Moore’s Friend Tells Bizarre Brothel Story to Defend Candidate Ahead of Election,” Fortune, December 12, 2017.)
Coming from a senior and respected member of the GOP establishment within the state, that’s a damning statement. Unfortunately for Moore, a number of similar calls came from various Republican House and Senate members during the election lead-up in November. By the time President Trump coerced his caucus to begrudgingly support Moore, the damage was already done.
By the Numbers
With nearly all of the votes counted, write-in votes numbered approximately 23,000. That’s more than Jones’s total margin of victory, which came in below 21,000. Assuming most of these write-ins flowed in Moore’s direction, the GOP’s influence was clearly felt.
How do we know this? Consider that during Jeff Sessions’ Alabama U.S. Senate run in 2008, write-in votes totaled just 0.12% of the aggregate. On December 12, that number jumped to 1.7% of the aggregate vote. So either voters are suddenly deciding to try their hand at write-in voting, or a small few decided to heed McConnell and Selby’s advice. Clearly, they did the latter. (Source: “Alabama Senate Race: Did Write-in Votes Give Doug Jones Victory Over Roy Moore?,” Newsweek, December 13, 2017.)
In the end, it’s impossible to know for sure whether the GOP write-in vote advocacy sunk Moore for good. But it’s safe to say the results would be exceedingly close if they hadn’t engaged.