Will Julian Castro Run for Presidential Bid in 2020?
There are credible rumors that Julian Castro, the former mayor of San Antonio, is aiming for the highest office in the land. He already has Washington experience; he left his role as mayor to join the Obama cabinet as United States Secretary of Housing and Urban Development. When asked about whether he would run for the presidential bid in 2020, Castro said: “I might.” (Source: “Texas Democrat Julian Castro tells crowd ‘I might’ run for president,” Chron, November 5, 2017.)
You might be forgiven for thinking that Julian Castro on the presidential bid 2020 is odd. In fact, you might already be baffled why Julian Castro, who earned a Juris Doctor (JD) Degree (he’s not a lawyer) served in such a specific technical role as Housing and Urban Development—better known as HUD. By all means, he’s an educated man, but you would expect such a role to go to someone who studied Urban Planning or Geography. After all, the Chair of the Federal Reserve is usually an economist or a banker, for example. The Secretary of the Treasury is also typically an economist.
Is Julian Castro Running for the Presidency in 2020?
This contradiction—that he accepted the job of HUD secretary without necessarily being qualified for it—tells the betting man that Julian Castro’s presidential run could be likely. It was as early as 2012 that Castro, who has an identical twin brother, Democratic Congressman Joaquín Castro, was touted as a potential candidate for the White House. Julian Castro also made it to Hillary Clinton’s running mate for Vice President shortlist in 2016. Few remember whom Hillary ended up choosing as running mate (it was Senator Tim Kaine) but many remember Julian Castro.
Julian Castro Campaign
The Julian Castro campaign has already begun. Some could rightfully make the claim that his race to the White House began when he was a mere child. His mother, Rosie Castro, is the veritable Cornelia Gracchus of American—or Latino American—politics. For those who skipped Roman history in college, Gaius and Tiberius Gracchus, Cornelia’s twin sons, were Tribunes of the People (the equivalent of Members of the House of Representatives in the United States, which itself is modeled after the Roman system). Though of noble birth, their grandfather had participated in defeating Carthage in the Second Punic War. They represented the “Populares,” advancing the cause of the Plebeians (the poor) rather than the Patricians (the wealthy). Their mother, Cornelia, was thought to be a major influence on their political ambitions and character.
So too was Rosie Castro on her sons, Julian and Joaquín. She was an active member of the political group known as “La Raza Unida” in the 1970s. The party claimed to fight to advance the civil rights of Mexican-Americans, especially in Texas. She raised the two boys on her own. That should ring familiar to anyone who knows the Barack Obama story. The fact that Julian Castro was voted into the San Antonio City Council at the age of 26 (Julian Castro’s age is 43) was a sign of things to come.
Julius Castro Is a Classic Career Politician
Castro is a career politician if ever there were such a thing. He has lived and breathed politics since a young age. But what could make him a contender is his positioning in relation to President Trump. Just as Donald Trump came to champion the role of the anti-Obama, Castro can position himself as the anti-Trump in 2020. (Source: “The case for Julian Castro as the 2020 Democratic nominee,” The Hill, February 15, 2017.)
In politics, timing is often overlooked. But, as in acting and comedy and so many other things in life, timing truly is everything. Had Obama been a different kind of president, say closer to Bush Senior (1989-1993), Trump or someone running a similar campaign would have had far less resonance. Bush Senior could afford to be more centrist than an outright Republican during his time in office. Obama was more partisan in the new wave of identity politics.
The culture has changed, and President Obama and his administration played it to great effect. The proof that it worked stems from the fact that one year after President Trump won the White House, he still struggles to establish legitimacy with those who voted for Hillary Clinton. But, politics are also like a rollercoaster ride.
U.S. Sen. Chris Murphy talks to Julian Castro (Credits: Alex Wong/Staf/Getty Images)
At first, everything feels new and exciting, but after your tenth consecutive ride, no matter how much you enjoy the thrill, you will probably want to get off and try something new. The more extreme the direction, the more extreme will be the reaction. I believe a man called Isaac Newton once had something very important to say on that front. After four years of Trump, voters can expect the pendulum to swing back.
The left, rightly or wrongly (I believe wrongly), will push the kinds of politics that could leave Julian Castro as the only possible choice. Alternatively, Hillary Clinton could make another bid. They’re the opposite side of the coin to Trump and that’s why they fit so well. Julian Castro would be the equivalent of Hillary all over. Except he has been exceptionally “clean” in his affairs, both personal and political.
He may not be experienced in performing a real job—as in, one outside of politics—he may lack special skills, but he can win crowds over with elegant yet still populist (Left populist as opposed to Trump’s Right-populist) rhetoric. He also carries little baggage, unlike Hillary. The more one thinks about it, the more Julian Castro President 2020 sounds rather likely. Indeed, it sounds positively formidable. Trump will have a difficult time keeping the keys to 1600 Pennsylvania Avenue.
Is Castro Progressive Enough to Run?
Still, to do that, Castro will have to fine-tune his most progressive ears. He appears to have failed to impress the more progressive side of the Democratic Party base. In other words, he has not won over the Bernie Sanders voters, who abandoned Hillary. That’s key if Julian Castro 2020 is to be a thing. The former HUD boss even failed to get the Dems’ support to run as Hillary’s VP. (Source: “Progressive groups target Julián Castro,” Politico, April 12, 2016.)
It’s too early to offer credible 2020 elections predictions. Too many things could happen. It’s still uncertain whether the Dems—and some Republicans—obsessed as they are with pushing the Russiagate rhetoric, will succeed in pushing for impeachment procedures against Trump. That remains a possibility that nobody can discount just yet, no matter how wrong or right those harping on Trump might be.
The cynical forecaster, who does not let his/her political passions cloud the analysis, must let go. If only temporarily, the analyst must be neutral. It’s as if he/she were playing a solo chess game. Such dispassion suggests that there is an unprecedented level of uncertainty. There are deep divisions within both parties.
The Democrats are still hurting from Hillary Clinton’s defeat. She was supposed to have won easily; instead, she posted an embarrassing loss. One of the reasons is that so many in her Party wanted a different candidate, who was, if we are to believe WikiLeaks, manipulated out of the running. Many Democrats are still angry but they have not joined the ranks of the protesters that have sprung up everywhere like weeds since November 9, 2016. If those of the Greatest Generation remember December 7, 1941, as a “day that will live in infamy,” as President Franklin Delano Roosevelt said, then November 8, 2016, may well hold a similar effect for Millenials.
If Trump decides he would rather be running Miss America instead of America itself in 2020, the Republican Party will have a monumental task on its hands. They will have to decide whether to go with the unassuming and anonymous V.P. Mike Pence or they will choose another candidate, who will have to be as charismatic as Trump, only much less flamboyant and politically incorrect. They will try to win more Democrats to their camp. It’s no easy task. Trump, for better or worse, has already left a huge mark.
If Trump does stay, the Democrats will field the candidate who can muster similar populist power; except it will come from the Left. The many Latinos and Hispanics, who have felt alienated from the current Trump administration, will be looking for vindication. The “Russiagate” fanatics will also demand retribution and the various power lobbies—like the military industrial complex—will want to ensure that the foreign policy status-quo remains.
That is to say, America will need to maintain its “enemies” such that the sale of heavy weapons continues uninterrupted. Such a list in mind can only conjure up a handful of people. One of them is Barack Obama. Don’t discount the chance that he will run again. His wife Michelle Obama may also give it the old-fashioned college try. Or, they might coach Julius Castro to adopt a combination of Sanders and Hillary cues, which will make him a formidable opponent.