5 Possible Ways a Newly-Issued DHS ISIS Attack Warning Could Unfold
If Americans think ISIS has been defeated, think again. Despite the recent disbandment of the “caliphate” in Syria, the Department of Homeland Security (DHS) still believes the threat to the United States is quite real. They’ve issued an ISIS attack warning, expressing their belief that a large-scale 9/11-like attack could happen again.
The person issuing the latest warning is none other than acting DHS chief Elaine Duke. She fears that, with ISIS fighters defeated in the Middle East, the battle-hardened remnants will filter home to sow chaos domestically. “The terrorist organizations… want to have the big explosion like they did on 9/11. They want to take down aircraft, the intelligence is clear on that.” (Source: “Be Afraid America – DHS Warns ISIS, Al Qaeda Are Planning ‘9/11-Style’ Attack,” Zero Hedge, October 19, 2017).
What’s more, this DHS warning of possible attacks comes just a day after Director General of the MI5 (Britain’s elite intelligence agency), Andrew Parker, said that Britain was under unprecedented threat from Islamist terrorists. This is hardly surprising, considering the unmistakable rise in terrorism-related events in recent years.
So, should these dastardly warnings come true, what could the next big terrorist event look like? Could America again grapple with an event similar to the October 1 Las Vegas shooting massacre or something akin to 9/11? Or perhaps something out of left field; an original style of attack that hasn’t been seen before in America?
Now, I’m not a global terrorism expert like the good folks at Stratfor. Nor am I trying to give potential terrorists grandiose ideas. I’m simply analyzing past modus operandi of ISIS-style groups, and incorporating past precedent into the following analysis.
5. Urban Snipers
American terrorism hasn’t occurred via this method very often. The last high-profile case happened back in October 2002, when, for three weeks, the “Beltway Snipers” struck fear in the heart of metro Washington D.C. area residents.
Anyone in an open space was a target, which was frightening, considering that almost everyone was exposed at some point during the day. Normal everyday events like pumping gas or mowing the lawn became tense endeavors. Nobody knew when, who, or where the next target would be, and it felt like an omnipresent spirit was stalking the city. The snipers’ 1990 “Chevrolet Caprice” sedan became the most looked-for car in America.
In the end, snipers John Allen Muhammad and Lee Boyd Malvo killed 10 and critically injured three more. But, perhaps the most overlooked aspect was the tremendous financial damage it caused locally.
While the snipers remained active, The Washington Post reported that retailers in Montgomery County, Maryland, suffered a 50% drop in sales. This was confirmed by Montgomery County Economic Development Office Head David Edgerley, who said, “People are staying home, being with their families – they are not out shopping.” He added that retail businesses throughout the sniper’s domain suffered big losses. (Source: “The Heights, Volume LXXXIII, Number 25, 5 November 2002,” Boston College Libraries, November 5, 2002.)
So, for terrorists seeking a prolonged, economically draining, psychologically impacting event, urban sniper attacks could seem feasible. Imagine how much of an impact an attack such as this on multiple cities could create. Economic growth could be greatly affected, and continuous chaos would reign within America’s borders.
Advancement in shooting triangulation technologies may be the great equalizer in this age, however. It would be harder for a sniper to remain undetected where this technology is present. Still, the possibility of urban sniper attacks cannot be discounted.
4. Chemical/Biological Dispersion
This is another of the not-too-common forms of terrorism. Logistically, they are hard to carry out. It’s not easy to weaponize chemical or biological agents into an aerosol that can spread readily into the environment. These agents are also quite unstable. The last thing any terrorist organization wants is the high risk of a botched event. That’s a surefire way of becoming irrelevant quickly.
But, outside their uses in World Wars, cases of chemical/biological dispersion have occasionally cropped up.
On March 20, 1995, members of the cult movement Aum Shinrikyo unleashed sarin gas on subway cars in Tokyo, Japan. They spread it by bursting packets filled with sarin liquid on the subway cars, causing it to evaporate quickly in the surrounding environment. The casualty count: 12 dead, 50 badly injured, and 5,000 temporarily blinded.
It’s possible that terrorists may be looking to replicate such an event. Authorities claim that ISIS is looking to execute a similar attack across Europe. Intelligence agencies fear that deadly gas could be unleashed in public hotspots and transportation hubs. (Source: “TERROR WARNING: ISIS plotting POISON GAS attacks on public transport, experts fear,” Express, October 20, 2017.)1
Let’s hope the threat remains just that—a threat.
3. Car/Truck Bomb
No need to delve too deeply into this type of threat. Car and truck explosions remain one of the terrorist’s favorite modus operandi to date. The reasons are obvious: they are destructive, relatively easy to construct, cost-efficient, and can be administered on most soft targets.
In terrorism-plagued Middle Eastern nations like Iraq, vehicular bombings are an everyday occurrence. If the country goes one week without a multi-casualty event, it’s considered unusual.
Fortunately, America being under attack of car bombs is not usual. However, it’s also not unprecedented; there have been at least two high-profile attacks using this method in recent decades.
The first was in 1993, when a 1,336-pound (606 kg) urea nitrate-hydrogen gas bomb exploded in the World Trade Center, killing six and injuring over a thousand. The device failed to bring down one of the buildings, but we already know how devastating the results would have been if successful.
The second was the April 19, 1995 Oklahoma City bombing of a federal government building, which killed 168 people and injured 680. The explosion ripped the entire front face off of the nine-story Alfred P. Murrah building. The troubling part was the way the bomb was constructed. The main ingredient was a common and easy-to-obtain fertilizer called ammonium nitrate, and it only took a couple of accelerants to unleash its explosiveness.
A large-scale vehicular explosion hasn’t occurred in America in some time. We sincerely hope it stays that way.
2. Aviation Attack
What more can we say but…9/11. ISIS planning an attack would surely include this option if it could somehow overcome the beefed-up security since 9/11. Armed Federal Air Marshalls are now part of standard flight protocol. Airports now feature more advanced body scanners and chemical residue sensors, and predictive technologies are just being rolled-out.
As such, it’s unclear whether the era of the hijacker is coming to an end. There’s no doubt that the ability to commandeer a plane and strike any ground-based target would be an attractive option for terrorists. But doing this with simple box cutters seems unlikely now—as does blowing a plane out of the sky, like would-be shoe bomber Richard Reid attempted.
We’re getting to the point where even looking suspicious at an airport could get you taken down by SWAT. I wonder if terrorists will attempt to pick lower-hanging fruit elsewhere.
1. Heavy Firearms Attack
Is ISIS planning an attack with heavy firearms? Quite possibly, if they’re looking to mimic other high-profile shooting attacks in America. We’ve already witnessed such cases, in which Islamic-inspired insurgency may have inspired such events. So, the idea that ISIS might try it shouldn’t surprise anyone.
The 2015 San Bernardino attack, which left 14 dead and 22 injured, is a prime example of this. The perpetrators attacked a Department of Public Health training event/Christmas party of about 80 employees in a banquet room. The FBI went on to conclude that the terrorists were “homegrown violent extremists” inspired by foreign Islamic terrorist groups.
The 2016 Orlando nightclub shooting, which left 49 dead, also has several Islamic terrorism hallmarks. Although no concrete motive has been established, some key facts in the case point in that direction.
Regardless, with anywhere between 270 million to 310 million guns in existence in America, and ease of access in many jurisdictions, gun terrorism will remain a common terrorism option in America. (Source: “A minority of Americans own guns, but just how many is unclear,” Pew Research Center, June 4, 2013.)
We hope that this latest DHS warning of attacks turns out to be fruitless. Many other warnings have in the past. Sadly, terrorists are apt to score a big victory eventually. Let’s just hope they have an off-day when it happens.