After Recognizing Jerusalem as Capital, Trump Threatens to Cut Aid to Palestinians
President Donald Trump has announced that the U.S. would cut some $300.0 million in annual aid for the Palestinian Authority and the United Nations Relief and Works Agency for Palestine (UNRWA). The president is inclined to take this step because, he suggests, the Palestinians are not interested in talking about peace:
…peace treaty with Israel. We have taken Jerusalem, the toughest part of the negotiation, off the table, but Israel, for that, would have had to pay more. But with the Palestinians no longer willing to talk peace, why should we make any of these massive future payments to them?
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— Donald J. Trump (@realDonaldTrump) January 2, 2018
How will the Palestinians respond to President Donald Trump’s latest move? Don’t expect any new revolts. So far, Hanan Ashrawi, one of the most famous figures in the Palestinian Liberation Organization (PLO), has given a simple answer that explains the Palestinian reaction better than any lengthy analysis: Palestinians “will not be blackmailed.” Palestinian Authority President spokesman Nabil Abu Rudeineh doubled down on Trump’s “doubling down,” saying that, “Jerusalem is not for sale, neither for gold nor silver.” (Source: “‘Jerusalem is not for sale’: Palestine to Trump after US threatens to cut $300mn aid,” RT, January 3, 2018.)
It’s a Big Policy Reversal from Oslo, but the Timing is Bad
Given the recent events and the emergence of a new national hero, 16-year old fiery Ahed Tamimi, the time may not be ideal to make grandiose threats. Trump had already effectively swept off the negotiating table whatever crumbs there were of an Israeli-Palestinian peace process when he recognized Jerusalem as Israel’s capital. Every U.S. president before him, even George W. Bush, refused to take that step, because it was always understood that such a recognition would come only at the end of a comprehensive peace agreement. After that, only the most foolish Palestinian would continue to hold any faith in Washington’s willingness or ability to act as an honest broker.
Even former Israeli prime minister Tzipi Livni has conceded that cutting off aid could exacerbate the humanitarian crisis, especially in Gaza. She’s being realistic rather than compassionate; she realizes that worsening conditions for Palestinian lives in already desperate regions like Gaza would be bad for Israel as well. (Source: Ibid.)
Trump and his UN über hawk representative, Nikki Haley, should ponder Livni’s warning. Worse-off Palestinians in Gaza would adopt an even more intense “what do we have to lose” attitude, translating to more rocket attacks against targets in Israel. Prime Minister Netanyahu would inevitably retaliate with military might, fueling the vicious circle of violence, certainly setting the stage for more chaos in the Palestinian Territories does not benefit Israel in any manner.
Historically, U.S. financial assistance to the Palestinians barely registered in the charts, but increased considerably after the start of the Oslo peace process in 1992. The amounts have varied and reached their highest ever in 2009. Most of the funds go toward projects managed by the United States Agency for International Development and, based on the past few years, the total amount expected for 2018 was around $327.0 million. (Source: “U.S. Foreign Aid to the Palestinians,” Congressional Research Service, December 16, 2016.)
Trump’s Threat Hurts U.S. and Israeli Interests More than Those of the Palestinians
However smug President Donald Trump might feel about his latest move on the Middle Eastern chessboard, he may want to think harder before he makes the next one. By cutting off aid to the Palestinians but effectively doubling down on aid and unbridled political support, to the Israelis with the Jerusalem recognition, Trump has made it clear that his administration could care less about the Palestinians. That’s a mistake, even when seen from the Israeli perspective, for they know the Palestinians exist and a solution must be found if Israel is to establish any sort of normalcy. And it’s the sort of normalcy that doesn’t require every man and woman to serve on the Army.
Trump’s threat will do little more than spread more flames in Middle East, intensifying anti-Americanism. That’s the most tangible result that Trump can expect. He has already cut close to $300.0 million in funds for the UN for 2018 and 2019. Those Israelis and Americans who claim that Trump “understands the Middle East” are delusional. Even the most pro-Israeli observers will note that aid to the Palestinians is also in Israel’s interest. Preventing a humanitarian crisis in Gaza is the only way to maintain some hope that Palestinian security services will continue to cooperate, as Tzipi Livni hinted. Without aid, what incentive do Palestinian security officers have to cooperate with Israel when they don’t even know if they will get their salary? (Source: RT, January 3, 2018, op cit.)
However wasteful and deserving of criticism the UN as a whole might be, the UNRWA is essential. It helps fund educational, medical, and social services both directly and indirectly. Such is the necessity and the urgency that the Palestinians will no doubt seek a new peace broker. After years of disappointments, the Palestinians never expected much from Washington. The mid-1990s fueled hope, but by 2000, another uprising (Intifada II) had begun. Trump’s disengagement will allow China, which wants a diplomatic profile to match its relentless global economic power, to step in America’s place.
Beijing, unlike Washington, will act in its interests and neutrally. It will seek balance, as Chinese philosophy itself recommends. The Chinese have made it clear that they consider the Palestinian issue to be at the core of Middle East politics. Last November, a mere month before Trump made the Jerusalem move, Chinese Special Envoy for the Middle East Issue Gong Xiaosheng visited the region with a view to opening a bigger door to expand China’s role in the Palestinian issue. President Donald Trump has just left them a wide open gate.
