Roy Moore Recount Ambitions Die as Too Few Provisional Ballots Are Received
For the past few days, Alabama Senate run-off loser Roy Moore has urged supporters to keep the faith. Refusing to concede the election to upstart Democratic opponent Doug Jones, he reminded his supporters that “God is in control.” In the end, however, faith wasn’t enough to overcome the sizable vote count held by Jones. The much hoped-for Roy Moore recount will not be proceeding.
This was confirmed yesterday afternoon when Alabama Secretary of State John H. Merrill disseminated results on the number of Uniformed and Overseas Citizens Absentee Voting Act (UOCAVA) ballots and provisional ballots outstanding. The numbers came in lighter than hoped for the Moore campaign. As of yesterday, the total number of provisional ballots received is 4,967 and 2,888 of those have been verified. (Source: “Secretary of State John H. Merrill Releases Updated Numbers on UOCAVA and Provisional Ballots,” Alabama Secretary Of State, December 20, 2017.)
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Essentially, this means that Roy Moore doesn’t have enough votes to trigger automatic state recount provisions. Alabama state law requires that candidates come within 0.5 percent or less to trigger a recount. With Jones ending the run-off with a 20,715-vote advantage, even if every single UOCAVA and provisional ballot were cast for Moore, it would be mathematically impossible to close the gap within one percentage point, let alone 0.5%.
Confirming the inevitable, Secretary Merrill announced he will meet with the Alabama State Canvassing Board to certify the results of the Alabama Senate Special Election no sooner than December 26, 2017, and no later than January 3, 2018. This will certify Jones’s victory as immutable.
What Happens Next?
Roy Moore doesn’t have any standing to legally delay or postpone election certification results. Unless Roy Moore can uncover concrete evidence of overt election fraud, there’s little he can do. Thus, he’ll likely take Donald Trump’s advice and concede the election to Doug Jones.
Alternatively, if Moore can somehow prove his Senate run-off election was somehow materially tampered with, there rests a sliver of hope. There is precedent in Alabama of an election being overturned due to tampering.
In 2004, Montgomery County Circuit Judge William Shashy overturned Greensboro’s September 14, 2004, mayoral election and named Vanessa Hill mayor. He ruled that 148 absentee ballots cast for Johnny Washington and eight absentee ballots cast for Hill were illegal. Before his ruling, Washington was certified the winner 762-672. Shashy ruled that Hill was the winner 664-614. On December 9, the Supreme Court affirmed the trial court’s judgment to overturn the election. (Source: “Greensboro election result another division for town,” Tuscaloosa News, January 25, 2006.)
Hail Marys aside, we wouldn’t hold our breath for Roy Moore’s chances for an 11th-hour turnaround. The sheer size of the deficit is just too much to overcome.
