Is Saif al-Islam Gaddafi Like His Dead Father?
What could be a more revealing indicator of the failure of NATO’s effort to “export democracy” to Libya than the fact that another al-Gaddafi might offer the best hope of restoring stability to that North African country? Saif al-Islam al-Gaddafi, son of former Libyan leader Muammar al-Gaddafi, has made his intentions clear. He will run in the 2018 presidential elections in Libya. A spokesperson for the Gaddafi family, Basem al-Hashimi al-Soul, confirmed this to Egypt Today. (Source: “Saif al-Islam Gaddafi to run for 2018 presidential election,” Egypt Today, December 17, 2017.)
But what, if anything, does Saif al-Islam (just “Saif,” to his friends) have in common with his dead father? The short answer is that he isn’t like his father, even if Libyans who want stability can benefit from the Gaddafi legacy that Saif alone offers.
Saif al-Islam Gaddafi can boast something no other leader can in present-day Libya. He enjoys the support of most of the twelve major tribes in Libya. This is the crucial aspect that Hillary “we came, we saw, he died” Clinton and President Sarkozy of France—among others—failed to consider when they encouraged the revolt in Libya in 2011. Saif has prepared a program, which, unsurprisingly, focuses on ensuring stability and security by working with all Libyan factions. (Source: Ibid.)
Credits: Salah Malkawi/Stringer/Getty Images
Saif spent the years after his father’s demise in captivity. He was captured by a militia operating in the town of Zintan. He faces an international arrest warrant for crimes against humanity that he is said to have perpetrated during the eight-month-long uprising, which culminated with his father’s murder in October 2011. But, in view of what happened since 2011, most Libyan citizens may welcome the hope for a better future that an al-Gaddafi alone can offer, given the present Libyan situation.
How Did the U.S.-Led Invasion Affect the Course of Libyan Politics?
Few in Libya have the experience of weaving complex tribal alliances and modern western education to manage the only possible transition that Libya could have sustained in a post-Muammar al-Gaddafi scenario. That is not to suggest that Saif would govern Libya as his father did. That would be impossible both because of the historical context and the highly idiosyncratic political system Muammar al-Gaddafi created.
During some 41 years in power, Muammar al-Gaddafi built a governance system as flawed as it was unique. It worked behind the scenes because the “Brother Leader of the Revolution”—Gaddafi’s official title—balanced tribal interests carefully, while also co-opting religious interests to prevent fundamentalist excesses.
Still, the main reason Saif will not recreate his father’s Libya is that it’s impossible. The “Jamahiriya,” (a word Gaddafi invented by blending the Arabic word for “mass of people” and “Republic,” best translated as “massocracy”) cannot return. It was designed to collapse without Gaddafi at the helm and it did. There was nothing from that system that has survived in all of the various attempts at forming a government in Libya since 2011. The system had no continuity in it by design. It was truly a case of Gaddafi borrowing Louis XV of France’s motto “Apres moi le deluge” (i.e. A deluge will come if I fall) to the letter.
The media has often described Gaddafi as “president” of Libya. That is wrong. There was no such title. Gaddafi, in fact, held no official position. He was the Brother Leader—or sometimes “Guide”—of the Revolution of Libya. Thus, he was irreplaceable. There was no plan for any successor.
But, inasmuch as the Jamahiriya caused many an analyst to be lost in bewilderment trying to understand it, Gaddafi was no fool. He was famous for long and seemingly incoherent speeches. But even these exercises in verbosity had a purpose. He would adjust the tone and subject of his speeches to address the expectation of the target audience. There is no school or course anyone can take to learn this political approach that was more art than science.
Saif al-Islam has studied and lived in the West. He completed a PhD in governance at the London School of Economics and speaks English as well as he does Arabic. He is a technocrat. But, he’s the one technocrat in Libya that holds the keys to tribal stability. His father liked to dwell on classic “Dependency Theory” themes popular in the wake of the 1968 revolts. He liked to talk about anti-imperialism, African unity, and the rights of the poor. Few, outside of a baby boomer gathering featuring the Forrest Gump soundtrack, speak of such things earnestly these days. A blend of capitalism, environmentalism, political correctness, and feminism has superseded those themes.
In contrast, Saif al-Islam al-Gaddafi played an important and practical role in Libya’s rehabilitation with the West in the years preceding the revolution of 2011. His father used him as the regime’s voice for western consumption. Saif was even allowed to criticize aspects of what the Libyan regime had become, often contradicting his father. He targeted the (free) Libyan health care quality and addressed issues of such current topics as “civil society.” Saif’s PhD dissertation, “The Role of Civil Society in the Democratization of Global Governance Institutions: From ‘Soft Power’ to Collective Decision Making?” analyzed the problems of democracy, and its absence, in international governance. Thus, it now appears that Gaddafi Jr. may win a shot at putting that dissertation in practice.
Moreover, before the 2011 revolution, Saif ran a media company, al-Ghad, which published articles discussing corruption among senior military officers. He urged civilian control of the military, accused the army of being too large for Libya’s actual needs, and advanced the need for better overall governance. Security forces targeted the al-Ghad group, which moved out of Libya in 2010.
Generally, Saif al-Islam clashed with “the old guard,” including his own brothers, about what was or wasn’t good for Libya. His father may have planned to have Saif succeed him. Saif would have had a chance to gradually reform the system, had the “Arab Spring” not visited Libya in 2011. He would have enjoyed protection from his father’s security apparatus to shield his reforms from the anarchy that exists now.
Can Instability Help Saif al-Islam’s Chances?
Libya’s national army commander Khalifa Haftar announced the end of the Skhirat Agreement, known as the Government of National Accord. Could this intensify instability in Libya to the point of favoring Saif al-Islam, so he can build up support for himself? What has changed is not the Skhirat Agreement from two years ago. Rather, it’s the people of Libya, who have become fed up with promises of democracy. They want order and security after almost seven years of anarchy and that’s why Haftar is building a support base throughout Libya.
Haftar may have eliminated Skhirat, but he has also gained the support of the people. The next elections, if they can be held, will actually mean something. Haftar is gaining support and not only in Western Libya. In this sense, Saif ul-Islam can benefit from this climate. People—not only in Libya—will associate his last name with stability. Muammar al-Gaddafi was the longest-ruling leader in Africa until he was deposed.
The regime only collapsed under the weight of significant NATO intervention, directly through bombings and indirectly by arming the rebels. Saif and Haftar might even team up. Haftar was one of the original revolutionaries in 1969 with Muammar al-Gaddafi himself. Still, Saif will face problems in Eastern Libya (Cyrenaica).
His father deposed the Sanussi monarchy in September 1969, which originated in the Cyrenaica area and the Gaddafi regime always faced security problems there. It’s no surprise the revolt in 2011 started in Benghazi (Cyrenaica’s capital)—as did most coup and assassination attempts against the old Libyan leader since 1969.
Thus, the young Gaddafi would need Haftar’s help in Cyrenaica. In Western Libya, Saif ul-Islam has built a strong rapport with the Zintan militias who held in him prisoner since 2011. They control much of northwestern Libya; if they kept him alive, they intend to exploit their investment politically. Gaddafi could help bring stability to the northern Libyan tribes in a way none of the other Libyan politicians have done.
Overall, Saif ul-Islam would also likely be able to secure support from Egyptian president Abdel Fattah el-Sisi and Russian President Vladimir Putin as well. He would also get quiet support from the EU (Italy in particular). Europe fears that, if left unchecked, Libya will become overrun by migrants and unable to stop their flow. The EU is sending troops to Niger to get closer to the problem; they would welcome efforts to stabilize Libya, regardless of where they come from. When the effort is led by secular leaders like Haftar and Gaddafi, it’s all the better, even if there may be reluctance to speak enthusiastically in public.