Did Trump Mention Radical Islamic Terror as the Reason for Increased Crime in England?
In the context of POTUS’s latest faux pas, many are asking: Did Trump mention radical Islamic terror as the reason for increased crime in England? President Donald Trump is not known for saying whatever he’s thinking out loud. Generally, this is a good thing in a world that increasingly values phony displays of virtue—Harvey Weinstein comes to mind. But, as President of the United States, Trump must be more careful, even if Islamic terrorism in the U.K. has occupied many a media headline in 2017.
While many share Trump’s stance on radical Islamic terror, there are good reasons for the use of protocol in diplomacy. In the past few days, Trump decided to speak about England and its crime rates, stepping “in it” as the Queen may say when she stumbles on a muddy patch near the stables at Buckingham Palace.
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Recently, Trump took to Twitter to address the United Kingdom and its problem with crime. Specifically, he linked crime to radical Islamic terror in U.K.
Just out report: "United Kingdom crime rises 13% annually amid spread of Radical Islamic terror." Not good, we must keep America safe!
— Donald J. Trump (@realDonaldTrump) October 20, 2017
It did not take long for social and mainstream media circles to bite at the bit. They were all rushing to challenge his statement as being mistaken, incorrect, or both.
The accusation of choice is that Trump is guilty of Islamophobia. But that’s just the “gateway” indictment that triggers the rant on Trump’s mistakes and unfortunate comments du jour. Trump’s statements about “radical Islamic terror” get attacked for his combining the terms terror with Islam in some circles. Others may choose to jump from his aforementioned “U.K. crime” tweet to one of his popular slogans “Keep America safe.”
In effect, there’s nothing especially offensive about Trump’s connection between rising crime in the U.K. and terrorism. Looking only at the statistics, the United Kingdom experienced at least three attacks, officially linked to terrorism, in 2017. Surely, these would have added to crime numbers.
Have Terrorist Attacks Added to Rate?
Now, have the terrorist attacks of the past few years added 13% to the crime rate? Most economists and sociologists, the people whose job it is to study such things, would probably disagree with Trump. For starters, the U.K., just as many other Western economic powers, has experienced considerable socio-economic turmoil since the 2008 financial crisis. This would no doubt have influenced the crime rate in England.
Political reactions to Trump’s tweet were negative across the board. This is a hint that Trump may have hit a nerve. Labor MP Yvette Cooper, an expert on internal security issues, said the tweet was “inflammatory and ignorant.” She said the message could even “instigate” hate crimes at the expense of ethnic and confessional minorities. Such crimes are said to have increased 30% in recent months. (Source: “Anger over Donald Trump’s UK crime tweet,” BBC, October 20, 2017.)
Expectedly, other members of Jeremy Corbyn’s Labour Party and Green Member Caroline Lucas demanded Prime Minister Theresa May condemn Trump’s tweet. But, what was more surprising is the fact that a Tory MP, Nicholas Soames (Winston Churchill’s grandson), called Trump a “daft twerp,” suggesting that the U.S. president focus on arms control in the U.S. instead. (Source: “Winston Churchill’s grandson calls Donald Trump a ‘daft twerp’ after the president blames the UK’s crime statistics on ‘radical Islamic terror’,” The Daily Mail, October 21, 2017.)
The Associated Press did a fact check on presidential statements and concluded that in England and Wales, 5.2 million crimes were committed from June 2016 to June 2017 with a 13% increase over the previous year. But according to the National Statistics Office, the terrorist attacks in London and Manchester have hit less than one percent on the total figure.
Thus, Trump may certainly be guilty of reaching facile conclusions about the higher crime stats in the United Kingdom. This tweet was released soon after the publication of British crime statistics. No doubt, they did show an increase in crime in the first six months of the year in England and Wales, but the majority of crimes were not associated with terrorism.
The report states that a significant portion of this increase could be related to a change in accounting method. Indeed, a statistician at the Department of Criminology, Lancaster University, said the higher crime rates (that is, the crime rate in England) are simply a result of police recording a higher number of minor crimes. In the past, nonviolent crimes were likely omitted from official figures. (Source: “Trump erroneously ties British crime rise to ‘radical Islamic terror’,” Pittsburgh Post-Gazette, October 22, 2017.)
Donald Trump is not new to offering opinions over terrorism in the United Kingdom. Trump’s tweet on the subject on October 20 is merely the latest. Last September, after an attack on the London subway—the famous Underground tube service—backfired, instead of winning favor among the British people, fellow conservative British Prime Minister Theresa May responded by advising the U.S. president to avoid speculating hastily on ongoing investigations. She scolded Donald Trump for implying the police knew those responsible for setting off an explosive aboard a London subway train. (Source: “Theresa May rebukes Donald Trump over tube bombing tweets,” The Guardian, September 15, 2017.)
London and the U.K. have become a fixture—or a fixation—of Trump’s targets. A few months earlier, in the aftermath of deadly attacks in London, Trump was virulently attacking Sadiq Khan—the first Muslim mayor in the British capital—accusing him of minimizing the threat, of giving in to political correctness, and offering “pathetic” explanations. (Source: “Donald Trump berates London mayor over response to terror attacks,” The Guardian, June 4, 2017.)
Crime Statistics 2017 for England and Wales
Excluding the terrorist attacks, there were 629 homicides in England (53 million inhabitants in 2015) and Wales (three million inhabitants in 2011), between June 2016 and June 2017. (Source: “Police data shows crime rising at increasing rate in England and Wales,” The Guardian, October 19, 2017.)
Sounds like a lot? Of course, even one homicide is one too many, but compare that to the 789 homicides in Chicago, a city of 2.7 million inhabitants, in the same general period. (Source: “762 murders. 12 months. 1 American city.,” CNN, January 2, 2017.) England violent crime statistics look rather tame in comparison, regardless of what Trump might say.
Statistics suggest that cyber-crime and fraud incidents constitute the most common crime in England. (Source: “UK Fraud dominated by Cyber,” Infosecurity, last accessed October 23, 2017.)
Indeed, England’s violence rate is very low compared to the United States (it’s low compared to Chicago alone, so imagine how small it looks compared to the whole of the U.S.) but there has been a disturbing rise in violent crimes. There has been a record of hate crimes in England and Wales, particularly after recent terrorism and the tense climate generated by the Brexit referendum. In the 2016-2017 period, there were 80,000 such cases, marking a 29% increase according to the data released by Home Office. (Source: “Hate Crime, England and Wales, 2016/17,” Home Office, October 17, 2017.)
The biggest increases were concentrated after the four terrorist attacks in London and Manchester and following the vote to leave the EU. In 78% of cases, hate crime is motivated by racism and 11% by sexual orientation. Interior Minister Amber Rudd recalled the government’s commitment to counteract this type of crime. (Source: Ibid.)
Crime Is Rising But Not Because of Terrorism
Nevertheless, while overall crime statistics are excellent compared to the United States, violent crime is rising. Indeed, British leaders have become rather concerned by the severity of this phenomenon. A sudden surge of crime has affected London in particular. There has been a sharp increase in all categories. The famous London police force, Scotland Yard, issued a report suggesting that the use of weapons such as guns and knives has increased 42% and 24% respectively in the last year. In total, more than 774,000 crimes were recorded, with a 4.5% increase.
Still, if Trump thinks these statistics vindicate his recent tweet, he would be wrong. The British authorities have attributed the growing crime numbers not to terrorism but to sharp cuts in security/law enforcement. Indeed, the British police have blamed policies enforced by the conservative governments from 2010 to the present—hardly “radical Islamic terrorism.”
The report is very critical of the executive and represents the view of the new Scotland Yard commander, Cressida Dick. She is the first female Commissioner in the force’s history. The conclusion can only be that cutting funds for police—and also social welfare, I might add—does produce consequences. (Source: “First interview with new Scotland Yard chief Cressida Dick: Met Commissioner pledges five-year crackdown on violence,” EveningStandard, April 18, 2017.)
