A Closer Look at Job Numbers
Although the unemployment rate has moved down significantly in recent years, little attention is paid to what happens beneath the headline numbers. For instance, there is a tectonic shift away from manufacturing, with most of those workers being redirected to low-level service sector jobs.
According to the most recent jobs report, the U.S. economy added another 30,000 people to the “food services or drinking places” category, while simultaneously losing 13,000 jobs in the “manufacturing” category. (Source: “Since 2014 The US Has Added 547,000 Waiters And Bartenders And Lost 32,000 Manufacturing Workers,” Zerohedge, October 7, 2016.)
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It is an unsurprising shift when viewed as part of the longer-term trend.
After all, since 2014, the U.S. has added 547,000 waiters and bartenders. In contrast, the manufacturing sector has lost 32,000 jobs through attrition. To make matters worse, the jobs are not of equal value, but rather a substitute of high-paying positions for ones closer to minimum wage.
Many analysts consider this a secular trend for the U.S. economy.
Since the start of the recession in December 2007, more than 1.5 million manufacturing jobs have evaporated. At the same time, recession or not, the U.S. economy inducted 1.7 billion new bartenders and waiters.
As automation and outsourcing replace U.S. workers in repetitive manufacturing work, they expect a shift towards industries that place a premium on human relationships. The food industry fits into this paradigm, as do certain fields within healthcare. For instance, nursing and teachers jobs are expected to grow.
This could help explain why restaurant workers have increased in 78 out of the last 79 months despite the closures of major restaurant chains. In the cases of Logan’s, Fox and Hound, and Bob Evans, neither mass closures nor bankruptcies stopped the overall number of restaurant workers from increasing.
Some observers have commented on that discrepancy, but none have outright contradicted the clear inverse correlation between manufacturing and service sector jobs. In fact, recent breakthroughs in artificial intelligence software have all but cemented these changes in the economy. (Source: “Why the next 20 years will see a lot less technological disruption than the past 20,” Vox, October 3, 2016.)
