Optimists say that Canada and the European Union (EU) will sign a free trade deal over the weekend. However, the Comprehensive Economic and Trade Agreement (CETA) still faces opposition from Paul Magnette, premier of Belgium’s Wallonia-Brussels federation. Magnette said the Belgian francophone community would not allow CETA to pass and the deal has not been ratified yet. The Walloon parliament will vote on the deal on Friday, October 28.
Should it not work out, the CETA failure would serve yet another blow to the European Union after last June’s Brexit. As the clock moved closer to the summit, members of the European Parliament, meeting in Strasbourg, brandished “Stop CETA” signs. European Commission President Jean-Claude Juncker’s staff said that Canada’s Prime Minister, Justin Trudeau, canceled his Thursday visit, which was scheduled for a signing ceremony.
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Still, there are signs that the Walloons will yield. The best EU President Donald Tusk could say is that he is “cautiously optimistic” that CETA would be approved. (Source: “Belgium Breaks CETA Deadlock,” EUobserver, October 27, 2016.)
The Walloons say that the CETA deal is being rushed and that Parliament would have to study the terms carefully before reaching an adequate conclusion. Belgium needs the agreement of all its regions to ratify the agreement, and the EU needs its members’ unanimity. Such circumstances make it difficult for the October 27 EU-Canada summit to proceed.
Some of the thorniest issues concern agricultural products and plans to set up a special court to settle disputes. Wallonia and its 3.5 million inhabitants have fought hard to reject the signing of CETA. The deal would bring together 35 million Canadians and 500 million Europeans. Walloon leaders are concerned about the impact of the agreement on labor, the environment, and consumer protection.
An internal political contest within Wallonia has strengthened Socialist Premier Magnette’s resolve. It’s worth noting that Wallonia has become economically depressed after once being one of Europe’s most industrialized regions. It resembles the U.S. ‘Rust Belt’ states, as does its anti-free trade position.
Therefore, in some ways, Magnette resembles Donald Trump. Magnette faces political pressure from his Marxist Party rivals, who have been gaining strength pushing anti-free trade and globalization positions. Unemployment stands at 16%, double that in the rest of the country. (Source: “What’s Wallonia’s deal? A primer on its role in CETA’s crisis,” The Globe and Mail, October 25, 2016.)
Meanwhile, CETA advocates suggest the deal would generate billions of dollars in trade. But social and environmental concerns aside, the Walloons worry that the deal would create an arbitration process that would allow multinationals to sue governments in court. Wallonia’s opposition sets a precedent. Indeed, even if approved, the controversy over CETA still puts several free trade negotiations between the EU and other partners, such as the U.S. and Japan, at risk.
